Thursday, November 26, 2009

Goals since All-Star Break

I have heard alot of talk this week about how Steve Stamkos is on such a torrid pace since the end of last season. I decided to look at the goal leaders simce last season's all-star break, approximately three quarters of a season of games.
These stats are as of Nov 25.
Stamkos does actually rate quite high with 32 goals in his last 55 games behind the usual suspects, Ovechkin, Kovalchuk and Heatley and tied with Jarome Iginla, another proven scorer. In fact, of the 18 names on the list, 10 are 25 years of age or younger and all but one are 30 or under. Only the somewhat surprising Jason Arnott is older than 35.
The one number that really jumps out is Marian Gaborik's games played in the time in question. He has fired his 28 goals since the break in a mere 32 games for a Goals/Game rate of 0.875 better even than Ovechkin's 0.804 and Kovalchuk's 0.800. A Goals/GP rate of 0.800 translates to a 65 goal pace for an entire season. There have been three 65 goal scorers in one season twice before; 1988/89 (Yzerman, Nicholls, Lemieux) and 1992/93 (Selanne, Mogilny, Lemieux).
I'm not saying it's going to happen again this season, but it would appear that the NHL is in another new era of the sniper and Stamkos is definitely part of the movement.

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