Kovalchuk...Is he worth the Money?

With rumours of Ilya Kovalchuk soon to sign a large multi year deal for at least 8 million dollars per year, the question should be posed...is he worth it?
The facts are, Kovalchuk just turned 27 years old and is one of the elite goal scorers in the NHL. Indeed, over his first eight seasons, Kovie is one of the elite goal scorers of all-time.

Over his eight full seasons, Kovalchuk has tallied 338 goals or an average of 42.25 per season.

This is the 13th highest total for goals in a player's first eight years in NHL history. The top five are:

Wayne Gretzky 543

Mike Bossy 474

Brett Hull 413

Mario Lemieux 408

11 of the top 13 players on this list accumulated their totals in the late 197o's or early 1980's. Only Kovalchuk and Teemu Selanne started their careers in the lower scoring 1990's and 2000's. Once again, the Goals Adjusted tool comes in handy in order to compare eras. When Kovalchuk and Selanne's scoring is adjusted to a neutral era they rise to near the top of the list.

Here are the top ten most Adjusted Goals over the first eight seasons of an NHL career:

Wayne Gretzky 465

Brett Hull 426

Mike Bossy 410

Ilya Kovalchuk 395

Teemu Selanne 395

Mario Lemieux 375

Luc Robitaille 368

Jari Kurri 343

Guy Lafleur 335

Rick Martin 316

Pretty heady company for Kovie, in an adjusted and neutral scoring era Kovalchuk has averaged almost 50 goals per season. Of course, his countryman Alex Ovechkin has scored 305 Adjusted Goals over his first five seasons...an average of over 60 per year! His total in five years almost makes the above top ten through eight seasons. Ovechkin has more Adjusted Goals in his first five years than even Gretzky who had 300 over five years. That one is for another day...

So, as a 27 year old who should be right in his prime years perhaps 8 to 9 million a year is fair. Of course if he does end up back in New Jersey his goal rate will most likely drop in the tighter system. Over 27 games at the end of last season he scored 10 goals, a 30 goal pace. The one thing we can be sure of is there is a team somewhere in the world that will give Kovalchuk over 8 million a year.