Tuesday, April 28, 2015

Connor McDavid, Sizzling Hot


Future Edmonton Oiler Connor McDavid is making quite a mockery of the Ontario Hockey League playoffs. His team Erie holds a two games to one lead over Sault Ste. Marie in the OHL Semifinals. McDavid has played 12 games and ripped 18 goals and 14 helpers for 32 total points. Crazy. He's eight points up on second place Nick Ritchie. Just how does this performance compare to previous top rated prospects since 1990? Let's have a look at what these 18 year old phenoms did in their final junior playoff year, including the Memorial Cup if applicable.

Player, Team, Year GP-G-A-Pts Pts/Game
Connor McDavid, Erie, 2015         12-18-14-32  2.67
Taylor Hall, Windsor, 2010            23-22-22-44  1.91
John Tavares, Oshawa, 2009          14-10-11-21  1.50
Patrick Kane, London, 2007           16-10-21-31  1.94
Rob Schremp, London 2006           19-10-37-47  2.47
Sidney Crosby, Rimouski, 2005     18-20-22-42  2.33
Corey Perry, London, 2005             22-15-30-45  2.05
Corey Locke, Ottawa, 2003            23-19-19-38  1.65
Brad Richards, Rimouski, 2000      16-17-30-47  2.94
Pavel Brendl, Calgary, 1999           24-25-28-53  2.21
Justin Papineau, Belleville, 1999    25-22-32-54  2.16
Vinny Lecavalier, Rimouski, 1998 18-15-26-41  2.28
Cameron Mann, Peterboro, 1996    29-31-18-49  1.69
Jarome Iginla, Kamloops, 1996      16-16-13-29  1.81
Alex Daigle, Victoriaville, 1993         6-5-6-11    1.83
Pat Falloon, Spokane, 1991            19-18-18-36  1.90
Eric Lindros, Oshawa, 1991           16-18-20-38  2.38

These are guys that were highly touted as NHL prospects and all are from their 18 year-old season of junior. As we can see, not all of them panned out as expected. One of the highest point per game rate here is Robbie Schremp who has played just over 100 NHL games and spent the past season in Sweden. Even still, McDavid's production is better than even re-knowned junior studs Crosby, Tavares or Lindros. 

How does McDavid compare with final junior playoff seasons of some of the greats of all-time?

Player, Team, Year GP-G-A-Pts Pts/Game
Bobby Orr, Oshawa, 1966                         29-21-43-64 2.21
Guy Lafleur, Quebec, 1970                       27-43-36-79 2.93
Gilbert Perreault, Montreal, 1970             28-34-40-74 2.64
Marcel Dionne, St.Catherines, 1971         20-34-30-64 3.20
Mike Bossy, Laval, 1975                          16-18-20-38 2.38
Wayne Gretzky, Sault Ste. Marie, 1977   13-6-20-26   2.00
Dale Hawerchuk, Cornwall, 1981            24-23-24-47 1.96
Brian Bellows, Kitchener, 1982               20-22-19-41 2.05
Pat LaFonatine, Verdun, 1983                  19-14-26-40 2.11
Mario Lemieux, Laval, 1984                    17-30-25-55 3.24
Vincent Damphousse, Laval, 1986           14- 9-28-37  2.64
Joe Sakic, Swift Current, 1988                 10-11-13-24 2.40

Obviously, it's common for the top-rated junior players to dominate during the swan-song of their junior career. This is not to say that McDavid is guaranteed to be as good as Gretzky or Lafleur or to be a bust like Schremp or Cameron Mann. It sure is fun to compare the numbers though.

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