Wednesday, April 12, 2017

Teenage 40 Goal Scorers


Auston Matthews just completed a rookie season for the ages, as a teenager. He became only the 12th teenager in NHL history to notch at least 40 goals and only the 3rd since 1993. Below is the chart from hockey-reference.com showing all the teenagers to top 39 goals, which adds Yzerman and Crosby to the list.
Now, of course, league-wide goal scoring rates have fluctuated greatly over the years from 8 goals per game in the early 1980's to just over 5 goals per game just prior to the lock-out of 2004. The 2016/17 season produced a scoring rate of 5.53. Hockey-ref has a wonderful statistic called Adjusted Goals in which seasons from different eras can be compared to an even playing field. Below is the list of teenagers above translated to Adjusted Goals:

Stamkos 56
Nash 48
Carson 46
Matthews 44
Gretzky 43
Crosby 39
Nolan 37
Lemieux 34
Lindros 33
Hawerchuk 33
Hawerchuk 32
Bellows 32
Turgeon 31
Yzerman 31

Matthews' season looks even more impressive after adjustment for era. His goal scoring was more statistically impressive than even Gretzky's rookie season. Amazing. The fourth best goal-scoring season by a teenager in NHL history. If Matthews doesn't win the Calder Trophy, I'll eat one of my many, many Maple Leafs hats.

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