Auston Matthews is Back


Through a dozen games of the 2023/24 season, Auston Matthews leads the NHL with 13 goals. He is the first Maple Leaf with at least that many goals in the first 12 games since Rick Vaive had 14 almost exactly 40 years ago. 
Matthews has 4 multiple-goal games in his first dozen (including 3 hat-tricks) but has been kept scoreless in half of the games. Forty years ago, Vaive scored in 8 of 12 games with only one hat-trick and five multi-goal games. 
NHL scoring leaders on November 1, 1983.

On Nov. 1, 1983, Vaive was one goal ahead of both Wayne Gretzky and Vancouver's Tony Tanti. As the season progressed, Vaive slowed down a bit and potted 40 more goals in his final 64 games to finish fifth overall with 52 goals. Tanti, himself slowed even more, with 33 goals over his last 67 games to total 45 total, good for 12th in the league. Gretzky, of course, found another gear soon after, scoring a ridiculous 75 more goals in his final 62 games (he missed 6 due to injury). In fact, The Great One almost immediately took over the goal-scoring race with 11 goals in 6 games from Nov. 2 to 12. His 87 goals in 74 total games resulted in perhaps the greatest goal-scoring season in NHL history, with an even higher scoring rate than his 92 goal season in 1981/82.


As for Matthews, he notched a mortal six goals in his first 12 games each of the last two seasons, including 2021/22 when he ended up with 60 goals total.
In 2020/21, Matthews began the season with 11 goals in 12 games and would finish with a league-leading 41 in the 52 game shortened season. His previous best start to a campaign however was 2018/19 with 12 goals in 12 games. He'd finish with 37 in a 68 game injury-shortened year.

If we look at Adjusted goal rates on hockey-reference.com, Matthews is scoring goals at simply historical pace. He is projected for 89 goals at this pace and the same number of Adjusted goals, which would be the top mark all-time. Gretzky's 83/84 translates to 69 goals adjusted to this season, good for 7th in NHL history. All things considered, even I can fairly safe say that Matthews will not score 89 goals this season. As seen in the chart below, Frank Vatrano is projected to have the 12th best Adjusted Goal season ever. I'll go out on a limb and say Matthews has a slightly better chance of scoring actual 67 goals this year than Vatrano.
Adjusted Goals in a Single Season, All-Time Leaders
2023/24 projected as of Nov 7, 2023

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